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Prediction for CME (2023-10-31T22:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-10-31T22:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27537/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the south/southwest in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source of this CME is a filament eruption stretching between S18E00 to S40E40. The filament begins to erupt around 2023-10-31T20:00Z as seen in SDO/AIA 304 with clear deflection to the south/southeast towards disk center before exiting the SDO/AIA field-of-view. Brightening, moving/opening field lines, and a wide-set post-eruptive arcade are visible following the eruption of the filament in SDO/AIA 193, 171, and 304. Likely arrival signature is characterized by a rapid amplification of magnetic field with Btotal increasing from 5nT at 2023-11-04T15:45Z to 16nT at 16:57Z. A significant increase in density is observed as well. Further review of this arrival signature in consultation with Lan Jian at NASA/GSFC suggests that this arrival may be associated with CME: 2023-10-31T22:12Z. It is possible that the B rotations in late Nov 4 at the WIND spacecraft are due to the same CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-11-04T15:45Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-04T21:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2023 Nov 01 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
...
Beginning around 31/1918 UTC an approximately 25 degree long filament
centered near S38E25 erupted. Analysis and modeling efforts determined
the bulk of the ejecta to be south with a nearby passing of Earth on 5
Nov. 
----------
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2023 Nov 02 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
...
Solar Wind
Forecast
... Late on 04 Nov to early on 05 Nov, a glancing blow from
the 31 Oct CME is possible.
Geospace
...
Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 02 Nov and
mostly quiet on 03 Nov. Late on 04 Nov, an increase to unsettled levels
is possible due to glancing effects from the 31 Oct CME.

Lead Time: 82.63 hour(s)
Difference: -5.25 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-11-01T05:07Z

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